By Jay Lehr, Ph.D. – Science Director of The Heartland Institute – www.globalwarmingheartland.org

SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE

1- Carbon Dioxide is not a pollutant.  On the contrary it makes crops and forests grow faster.  Mapping by satellite shows that the earth has become about 6% greener overall in the past two decades, with forests expanding into arid regions.  The Amazon rain forest was the biggest gainer, with two tons of additional biomass per acre per year.  Certainly climate change does not help every region equally, but careful studies predict overall benefit, fewer storms, more rain, better crop yields, longer growing seasons, milder winters and decreasing heating costs in colder climates.  The news is certainly not bad and on balance may be rather good.

2- Climate Alarmism is a Terrible Joke. Someday the world will wake up and laugh when they finally understand that the entire pursuit of economic ruin in the name of saving the planet from increasing carbon dioxide is in fact a terrible joke.  You see it is an unarguable fact that the portion of the Earth’s greenhouse gas envelope contributed by man is barely one tenth of one per cent of the total.  Do the numbers yourself.  CO₂ is no more than 4% of the total (with water vapor being over 90% followed by methane, sulpher and nitrous oxides).  Of that 4% man contributes only a little over 3%.  Elementary school arithmetic says that 3% of 4% is .12% and for that we are sentencing the planet to a wealth of damaging economic impacts.

3- The effect of additional CO₂ is limited. The effect of additional CO₂ in the atmosphere is limited because it only absorbs certain wave lengths of radiant energy.  As the radiation in the particular wave length band is used up, the amount left for absorption by more of the gas is reduced.  A simple analogy is to consider drawing a curtain across a window – a large part of the light will be shut out but some will still get through.  Add a second curtain to the first and most of the remaining light will be excluded.  A point will quickly be reached where adding more curtains has a negligible effect, because there is no light left to stop.  This is the case with the absorption of energy as more carbon dioxide is added to the atmosphere.

4- Higher vrs. Lower Level of the Atmosphere. If greenhouse gases were responsible for increases in global temperature of recent decades then atmospheric physics shows that higher levels of our atmosphere would show greater warming than lower levels.  This was not found to be true during the 1978 to 1998 period of .3 degrees centigrade warming.
5- Increases in CO₂ Levels Follow Temperature Increases. 900,000 years of ice core temperature records and carbon dioxide content records show that CO₂ increases follow rather than lead increases in Earth temperature.  This is logical because the oceans are the primary source of CO₂ and they hold more CO₂ when cool than when warm, so warming causes the oceans to release more CO₂.

6- Today’s Temperature Below Average. While temperatures have fluctuated over the past 5000 years, today’s earth temperature is below average for the past 5000 years.

7- Warming is Beneficial. A modest amount of global warming, should it occur, would be beneficial to the natural world.  The warmest period in recorded history was the Medieval Warm Period, roughly 800 to 1200 AD, when temperatures were 7 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than today, allowing great prosperity for mankind.  During that time Greenland was actually green.

8- Solar Activity Influences Temperature.  Temperature fluctuations during the current 300 year recovery from the Little Ice Age, which ended around 1700AD,  following the Medieval Warming Period, correlate almost perfectly with fluctuations in solar activity.  This correlation long predates human use of significant amounts of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas.

9- Other Planets Warming Also.  The National Aeronautic and Space Agency (NASA) has determined that during the time the Earth has been warming so also was Mars, Pluto, Jupiter and the largest moon of Neptune .

10- CO₂ Levels Much Higher in the Past. We know that 200 million years ago, when the dinosaurs walked the Earth, the average Carbon Dioxide concentration in the atmosphere was 1800 ppm, five times higher than today.

11- Global Cooling Also.  All four major global temperature tracking outlets (Hadley UK , NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, University of Alabama Huntsville , and Remote Sensing Systems Santa Rosa) have released updated information showing that in 2007, global cooling ranged from 0.65C to .75C. a value large enough to erase nearly all the global warming recorded over the past 100 years; all in one year’s time.

12- 2008 Coldest Year Since 2000. NASA satellites measuring the Earth’s atmospheric temperature found 2008 to be the coldest year since 2000 and the 14th coldest of the past 30 years.  US climate Monitoring Stations on the surface show greater warmth, but  pictures of most of the 1,221 US temperature stations show 90% to be located near human sources of heat (exhaust fans, air conditioning units, hot roof tops, asphalt parking lots and so forth).  The conclusion is inescapable: The US land-based temperature record is unreliable.

13- Glaciers Show No Global Trend. While we hear much about one or another melting glacier, a recent study of 246 glaciers around the world between 1946 and 1995 indicated a balance between those that are losing ice, gaining ice and remaining in equilibrium.  There is no global trend in any direction.

14- Mt Kilimanjaro Lacks Precipitation.  Some have claimed that snows on Mt. Kilimanjaro were melting due to global warming, but on May 1, 2007 National Geographic Magazine reported that the snows on Mt. Kilimanjaro were shrinking as a result of lower precipitation rather than a warming trend.  Development of land around the mountain has also influenced precipitation.
15- Polar Bear Populations Are Increasing.  Never mind that the overall polar bear population has increased from about 5000 (Variously Estimated at between 5,000 and 12,000) in the 1960s to 25,000 today, and that the only two populations in decline come from areas where it has actually been getting colder rather than warmer over the past 50 years.  Also ignore the fact that polar bears were around 100,000 years ago, long before at least one important interglacial period when it was much warmer than the present.  Clearly they survived long periods of time when the climate of the Arctic was much warmer than today.  Yet they are not expected to survive this present warming without help from government regulators.

16- Computer Models Are Not Accurate.  No computer model ever used to compute climate change has been able to calculate our recent past earth temperature, even though all measured data inputs were known and available.

17- A Huge Computer Needed. The inability of current computer hardware to cope with a realistic climate model projection was put in perspective by Dr. Willie Soon, of the Harvard Smithsonian Institute, who calculated that to run a 40 year projection using all variables across all spatial scales would require 10 to the power 34 years of supercomputer time.  This is 10 to the power 24 times longer than the age of the Universe.

ECONOMICS

1- Wind, Solar and Biofuels No Substitute For Existing Energy. The Nature conservancy predicts that by 2030 “eco-friendly” wind, solar, and biofuel projects will require extra land equivalent to Minnesota, to produce the energy we now get from oil, gas and coal.  Interior Secretary Salazar’s proposal to have offshore wind turbines replace gas, coal, and nuclear electricity generators would mean 336,000, 3.25 MegaWatt behemoths off our coasts – if they operate 24/7/365. It would require far more if they don’t. Where exactly will we site those turbinesf?  And where will we get the billions of tons of concrete, steel, copper and fiberglass it will take to build and install the expensive, unreliable, subsidized monsters?
2- Country Can’t Run on Renewables.  The idea that you can run America on “solar, wind, and biodiesel” is laughable.  Since 70% of the electricity generated in the US involves the burning of coal, natural gas or oil and another 20% from nuclear, a real viable alternative energy is decades away.  A single 555 Mega-Watt gas fired power plant in California generates more electricity per year than do all 13,000 of the state’s wind turbines.  The gas-fired plant occupies just 15 acres.  The 300 foot tall wind turbines impact 106,000 acres, destroy scenic vistas and kill tens of thousands of birds and bats every year – to provide expensive, tax-subsidized, intermittent, insufficient electricity.

3- Federal Research Dollars Poorly Spent.  The federal government has been investing in renewable power research and technology for decades, with virtually nothing to show for it.  Billions of federal dollars are diverted to the renewable power industry every year, yet the industry still cannot come close to producing power anywhere near as economically as conventional fuel sources such as coal and gasoline.

4- Energy Will Become Very Expensive.  The automotive, coal and oil industries will be hit the hardest by expensive new penalties and mandates regarding carbon dioxide production, increasing the cost of transportation and electrical power to the consumer.

5-  Carbon Sequestration Will Be Very Expensive.  A typical 1000 Mega Watt power station could burn about 3 million tons of coal per year requiring 300 trains per year to supply the coal.  If Carbon, Capture and Burial is required, the extra power needed will call for another 150 trains of coal.  And if trains were used to haul the captured CO₂, the mass of material moved would require another 1150 trains per year, each train carrying 10,000 tons.

6- Carbon Dioxide Reductions are Counterproductive.  According to the United States Energy Information Administration’s economic models, last year’s proposed Lieberman-Warner bill to reduce CO₂ emissions, if passed, would have cost the average US household between $4000 and $7000 per year, would have increased unemployment by at least 2.5 percent, and would have reduced our Gross Domestic Product by 2.6 percent each and every year.

7- Cap-and-Trade Would Eliminate Many Jobs.  One side effect of President Obama’s cap-and-trade plan is the elimination of about 83,000 mining related jobs, 60,000 coal-energy power plant jobs, 31,000 coal transportation jobs and the tens of thousands of indirect jobs that produce products used by the coal sector.

8- Climate Legislation Will Move Jobs Offshore. California and Spain have proved that the war on carbon dioxide will kill real jobs faster than fake green jobs can be created.  At the time, the silly claims that alternate energy can provide continuous, economical and reliable power will encourage neglect of a key U.S. reliable low cost electricity source–coal power. When the lights go out industry will migrate to Asia and our power bills will soar and it will be too late to prevent great harm to our national economy, our jobs and our lifestyle.

9- Who Will Foot The Bill? The potential federal revenue stream from cap and trade boggles the mind.  White House sources estimate at least $72 billion per year in new funding for government coffers.  They concede it could be much more, depending on auction prices. Who will foot the bill?  Energy consumers of course, but those living in coal dependent regions will pay the most.

10- Just a Couple of Examples. In the 15 mid-west states stretching from the Appalachians to the Rockies residential power bills will increase between $20 and $26 per month if the CO₂ permit auction price is as low as $20 per metric ton, but the price will likely be higher. Ohio will be hit the 6th hardest as a result of its energy sources.

POLITICAL POSITIONS

1- The Folly of Consensus and Settled Science.  Historically Michael Crichton said the claim of consensus in science has been the first refuge of scoundrels.  It has been a way to avoid debate by claiming a matter to be settled.  Whenever you hear that a consensus of scientists agree on something or other reach for your wallet because you are being scammed.

2- The United Nations Gains Power.  Since credible scientific evidence established that CO₂ from mankind has little impact on temperature and none on public health, the net result of CO₂ limitations will be a transfer of wealth and the ceding of more authority to the United Nations as a global government.

3- Expanded Bureaucratic Meddling.  Once we accept the principle that carbon should be monitored, controlled and taxed, we open the door to the most invasive kind of bureaucratic meddling, and to all the carbon cops who want to stick their noses into every aspect of the way we live, whether it is the home in which we live, the kind of car we drive, our holiday destination, our pleasure boat or even the food-miles accrued in our choice of food.

4- Models Did Not Predict Present Temperatures.  Computer models of climate are now predicting that there will be no change in global temperature over the next ten years.  In some cases, these predictions say no significant warming will take place until 2030.  Take your pick.  If these models are so great, how did they miss the time-out we are presently experiencing from global warming?

5- The Real Hottest Years?  Surely you have heard that nine of the ten warmest years recorded in the US lower 48 states since 1880 have occurred since 1995, with the hottest being 1998.  Well, that also has been shown to be wrong. Less than a decade ago, the US government changed the way it recorded temperatures.  No one thought to correlate the new temperatures with the old ones, until Canadian researcher Steve McIntyre did so, correcting the record to show that 1934 was in fact the hottest year, with 1998 second and 1921 third.  Four of the 10 hottest years were in the 1930s and only 3 in the past decade.  Eight of the 15 hottest years in the past century occurred before carbon dioxide began its recent rise.

6- Unilateral Reductions in CO₂ Are Useless.  The world’s largest coal supplies are situated in the U.S., China, and Russia, which are all increasing their production.  Electricity generated from coal in 2008 was a record, with China increasing production by 200 million tons.  Unilateral efforts to cut CO₂ emissions in the face of this fact are therefore useless.

7- Waxman-Markey Too Complex To Understand.  Representative Waxman and Markey’s 648 page discussion draft of the climate bill, with its descriptions of permitted light bulbs, is so complex, confusing and impossible to understand, let alone implement without breaking some regulation, that it will make the old central planning of the Soviet Union seem like a back of the envelope outline by comparison.

8- The Precautionary Principle Cuts Both Ways. The Precautionary Principle (Cut emissions just as a precaution.) often claimed as reason to curtail CO₂ emissions cuts both ways.  If we make it harder or more expensive for people in Africa to use their coal it means they will keep inhaling smoke from wood fires, more babies will get lung disease, and more forests will be razed for fuel.  Meanwhile electric trucks will cost more to run and that will make fresh food more expensive, refrigerated meat may not be available, malnutrition will increase and money for medical research will shrink.

PHILOSOPHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

1- There is No Consensus. There is no consensus of scientists in favor of human caused global warming.  While opinion polls do not determine truth in science, more than 31,000 American Scientists signed a petition drafted by the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine which stated:

There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth’s Atmosphere and disruption of the Earth’s climate.  Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth.

2- Warming is Generally Beneficial.  While global warming is not currently happening perhaps we should wish it were.  Far more premature deaths result from cold than from heat.  Respiratory and cardiovascular diseases also increase in cold weather.  On the other hand longer growing seasons yield larger crops, and increased precipitation in warm weather adds to water supplies in water scarce areas. U.S. heating bills would decline substantially with a warming climate.

3- World Environment Damaged By Misguided Agenda.  Paradoxically, the world environment is likely to be damaged far more by misguided attempts to reduce carbon emissions than would be caused by man-made global warming, even if it were real and continued unchecked.  If third world countries were prevented from exploiting their natural resources to provide a better standard of living for their citizens, not only would their peoples continue to suffer poverty, disease, and low life expectancy, but they would not have the ability to protect their natural environments — only wealthy countries can afford to do so.

4- Weather Predictions Are Often Wrong.  Nobody believes a weather prediction 7 days ahead but now we are asked to reorder our economy based on climate predictions 100 years hence; climate predictions which are no longer supported by current evidence.

5- Carbon Trading Good Business. Carbon offsetting and trading schemes have the potential to make large profits for those who run them.   You can not actually offset carbon emissions by planting trees, as they merely store some of it for a while before releasing it once they rot or burn, and the storage will not even offset the emission for many, many years after planting.  Plus, the earth would have to be covered entirely by trees to even theoretically counter the stated impact of man-made emissions.

6- We Will Make Green Producers Wealthy.  Subsidies given to develop renewable energy sources, such as wind power, are a license to print money for their operators at the expense of the rest of us.  Companies promote green products that may be little more than gimmicks, but can be very profitable.

7- The Public is Not Convinced.  Although the court of public opinion already weighs climate change as a very low economic priority, the media continues to uncritically accept and vigorously promote shrill global warming alarmism.
8- Billions For Climate Research.  The United States government budgets $6 billion a year for climate research, supporting a growing industry of scientists and university labs that specialize in the subject. It all adds up to a significant institutionalization of the impulse to treat carbon as a problem.

9- Wind Farms Can Harm Whooping Cranes. More than six decades of painstaking conservation efforts that have brought the majestic whooping crane back from the brink of extinction may come undone because of the proliferation of wind farms in the United States.

10- Are Polar Bears Really Threatened? Pick up almost any magazine on the environment, almost any book, or film and you will see a picture of a poor polar bear swimming for his life, or standing on an ice sheet with a very forlorn look, or even on a dying iceberg with his friends, isolated from any hope of survival.  The polar bear has become the cause célèbre of the environmental movement.  Children are taught that in just a short time, if something radical is not done to stop man-caused global warming, the  polar bear will be gone (along with a lot of other species).  IN FACT POLAR BEARS ARE THE BEST SWIMMERS OF ALL LAND MAMMALS, they are insulated from the cold so well that they do not even have a thermal image, and they have been found to swim large distances; distances up to 200 miles. Only two polar bears have ever been found actually drowned, and those were believed to have drowned in a storm.

IN reality polar bear numbers, which only fifty years ago were around 5,000, NOW, AFTER very expensive longitudinal studies, ARE SHOWN TO BE between 20,000 and 25,000. Even knowing this fact the Secretary of the Interior has listed the polar bear as threatened.

The following comments were culled from a paper by H. Sterling Burnett with the National Center For Policy Analysis.

The World Wildlife Fund (WWF), a strong supporter of environmental issues, has studied endangered species for 50 years and they believe that Polar Bear populations are threatened.  However their own research indicates that there are approximately 22,000 living polar bears worldwide, that while some distinct populations appear to be decreasing, total numbers are either holding steady or are increasing.

Sterling went on to note:

Moreover, when the WWF report is compared with the Arctic air temperature trend studies discussed earlier, there is a strong positive (instead of negative) correlation between air temperature and polar bear populations. Polar bear populations are declining in regions (like Baffin Bay) that have experienced a decrease in air temperature, while areas where polar bear populations are increasing (near the Bering Strait and the Chukchi Sea) are associated with increasing air temperatures. Thus it is difficult to argue that rising air temperatures will necessarily and directly lead to a decrease in polar bear populations.

Conclusion. Are human activities causing a warming in the Arctic, affecting the sea ice extent, longevity and thickness? Contradictory data exists. What seems clear is that polar bears have survived for thousands of years, including both colder and warmer periods. There may be threats to the future survival of the polar bear, but global warming is not primary among them.

11- Climate Change Simply a Political Agenda For Control.  Climate change is not a scientific problem that found political support; this is about eco-activists and politicians who found a scientific issue they feel can leverage them into power and control.  The environment is a great way to advance a political agenda that favors central planning and an intrusive government.  What better way to control someone’s property than to subordinate one’s private property rights to environmental concerns.

CONCLUSIONS
1- Environmental Zealots Convince the Gullible. While the most extreme environmental zealots may be relatively few in number, they have managed to gain undue influence by exploiting the gullibility of many ordinary and scientifically illiterate people, who are only too willing to believe that the planet needs saving from man’s excesses.  Perhaps it is a psychological throwback to those earlier civilizations that offered human sacrifices to the gods, to assuage their sins and spare them from punishment in the form of drought, flood, famine or disease.  There are certainly many parallels between modern environmentalism and religion.

2- Our Priorities: Clean Water, Good Food, and Sanitation. By focusing our priorities on future generations we focus less on improving the lives of people who are alive today.  These future generations bear no closer relationship to us than those now living in developing countries whose lives we disdain to save.  Why are we not feeding people in the world who are hungry? Why are we not giving clean water to the almost one billion people who don’t have clean water? The greatest source of environmental degradation is poverty.  Why aren’t we helping eliminate poverty?  One answer is that perhaps it is a lot easier worrying about future generations than trying to fix present day problems.

3- Global Warming is a Major Industry Today. Between 1992 and 2008 the US Government spent $30 billion on climate change research and now contributes $6 billion a year.  This finances jobs, grants, conferences, international travel and academic journals.  It not only keeps a huge army of people in comfortable employment, but also fills them with self righteousness and moral superiority, regardless of the fact that real science did not support it.

It is clear that with the deep roots of the global warming scare it is not about to go away. It has the added advantage of not being able to be proven false in our life time.  In the mean time the sanest course for us would be to gain what limited perspective we can  (remembering the global cooling alarm of a generation ago) and proceed cautiously.  We are going through a scare with many causes, and we need to step back from it, take a long second look at the scientific evidence, and not do anything rash.